Does TV Advertising Explain the Rise of Campaign Spending? A Study of Campaign Spending and Broadcast Advertising Prices in US House Elections the 1990s and the 1970s Stephen Ansolabehere, MIT

Over the past several decades the cost of television time has increased substantially and congressional campaign spending has increased as well. This paper considers whether there is a causal relationship between these trends. Using the dramatic variation in advertising rates across congressional districts and over time, we assess the effect of higher television advertising rates on campaign spending levels and resource allocations patterns. We find that: 1. Higher television advertising prices have no effect on total campaign spending levels. 2. Campaigns strongly substitute their spending away from broadcasting and into mail when television advertising prices are higher, and 3. Higher television advertising prices have no significant effect on incumbent vote margins or victory rates. The advent of television in campaigns has had little effect on spending levels or vote margins in congressional elections.